Categories
BLOG

how many win

How Many Games Does it Take to Win the World Series?

In order to determine the champion of Major League Baseball in the U.S. and Canada, the winners from the National League and the American League play the “World Series.” The Series consists of seven games. If a team wins four out of the seven games, they are the champions.

Of course, all seven games are not played if a team has already won four. Thus, what we want you to find out is how many games do you expect to be played before a team wins four games and becomes the champion?

Predicting how long a series will take is not easy. There are many factors that are involved: Where are they playing? Is anyone injured? What is the weather like?

For the purpose of this problem, however, we will simplify these into one question. What is the probability that the National League (NL) will win an individual game?

You are welcome to make that probability whatever you like (depending upon whether or not you prefer NL teams or AL teams), but we suggest that you begin by making the chances 50-50 (probability = 1/2 = .5) and then play with different probabilities later.

Questions:

What is the least number of games that could be played and still have a champion?

What is the greatest number of games that would be played?

What sort of model could you use for this problem?

How would you solve this problem analytically?

How would changing the probability of the NL winning an individual game affect your model?

Please send questions and comments to Jay Hill

How Many Games Does it Take to Win the World Series? In order to determine the champion of Major League Baseball in the U.S. and Canada, the winners from the National League and the American

How many wins do the 49ers have and where are they compared to preseason win total odds

We track the San Francisco 49ers win total so far in 2020 and whether they are on pace for their preseason odds.

Share this story

  • Share this on Facebook
  • Share this on Twitter

Share All sharing options for: How many wins do the 49ers have and where are they compared to preseason win total odds

Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Week 10 update: The 49ers lost their third straight game to drop to 4-6. The 27-13 loss to the New Orleans Saints means they have clinched the under on their preseason win total (11).

Ahead of the 2020 NFL season, DraftKings Sportsbook set projected win totals for each NFL team. Some teams are well on their way to exceeding these win totals, outperforming the bar oddsmakers set for them prior to Week 1. Other teams need a bit more help to get there and the San Francisco 49ers are decidedly on this end of things midway through the season.

The 49ers entered 2020 with high expectations after blowing a fourth quarter lead to lose Super Bowl 54. They were NFC West favorites and on the short list of Super Bowl favorites. And then injuries happened. They lost Nick Bosa to a torn ACL and have since added Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, Tevin Coleman, and Raheem Mostert, among others to their injured reserve list. They’ve lost a host of other starters to shorter term injuries, including Kwon Alexander, Deebo Samuel, Jaquiski Tartt, and Jimmie Ward. It’s been a mess.

As they head into the back half of the season, the 49ers are a longshot to reach their preseason win total. It was set at 11 and barring an unexpected run, it’s not happening this year.

We track the San Francisco 49ers win total so far in 2020 and whether they are on pace for their preseason odds. ]]>